EFFECT OF FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL ON FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA, 2023-2025

Abstract

This study examined the effect of fuel subsidy removal on food security in Nigeria between 2023 and 2025. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of fuel subsidy removal on food prices, assessed its effect on agricultural production; analyzed its influence on household food access; and evaluated government interventions aimed at mitigating its adverse effects. The study adopted an ex post facto and time series research design, utilizing secondary data obtained through documentary sources such as reports from FAO (2024), WFP (2025), Central Bank of Nigeria (2024), and the Budget Office (2025). An econometric model was specified to analyze the relationship between food security (proxied by the food-insecure population) and key explanatory variables including government revenue, inflation, and agricultural output. The data were analyzed using document analysis and simple linear regression techniques with the aid of SPSS version 25. Findings revealed that although government revenue increased significantly following the removal of fuel subsidy, food security conditions deteriorated within the study period. Food insecurity rose from about 25 million people in 2023 to over 32 million in 2025. The study found that rising inflation, driven largely by subsidy removal, led to sharp increases in food prices and significantly reduced household purchasing power, thereby worsening food access, among others. The study concluded that the removal of fuel subsidy although beneficial for government revenue, had adverse short-term effects on food security in Nigeria. It recommended that government should implement targeted social protection programmes, stabilize food prices, and invest in agricultural productivity to cushion the negative impacts on households and ensure sustainable food security.