ATTRIBUTING GOVERNANCE OUTCOMES: A FRAMEWORK TO DISTINGUISH PARTY DIRECTION FROM EXECUTIVE AUTONOM

Abstract

A recurring problem in comparative politics and public policy research is the tendency to treat outcomes
produced by a government elected on a party platform as if they automatically reflect the institutional
direction of the ruling party. That assumption blurs the distinction between government under a party
label and governance directed by a party institution. This paper proposes an attribution framework that
examines three stages of the policy cycle: initiation, design, and monitoring. The framework was applied
to five governance outcomes associated with APGA-led Anambra State, Nigeria, between 2014 and 2022:
airport construction, community development, fiscal automation, small business support, and security
operations. Evidence comes from APGA's constitution and manifesto, Anambra State budget speeches,
policy records, legislative materials where available, credible public records, and 30 semi-structured
interviews with party officials, government actors, legislators, civil society actors, journalists, and
academics. The evidence suggests that four of the five outcomes were executive-led across all three
stages, while one showed limited and informal party presence at monitoring. None met the threshold
for strong institutional party direction. The paper offers a structured basis for separating party influence from executive autonomy and shows why ruling-party dominance should not be treated, without further
evidence, as proof of party-directed governance.